Radio under 15 million

[Oren1]

I love this play. Got it at 16, and just nailed it again at under 15. Nothing against the mentally handicapped, but it's my opinion that this subject matter is box office death. Nor Cuba Gooding Jr, Ed Harris, or the writer for the Rookie can save this one. Might do adequate business compared to it's budget but 15 million?! I really doubt it. Some thoughts in the Texas Chainsaw Massacre thread. Not sure why they opened this one in 3000 theaters, maybe because it somehow is tracking well? I don't know but 3,000 theaters and decent tracking does not mean 15 million or more with a movie like this. Think I am Sam crossed with Remember the Titans. 8 million (only 1200 theaters, but they were crowded because people had less of a choice in which theater to go to not because it was a huge draw, IMO) plus 20 million (1800 theaters), divided by 2, 14 million, tops? The Rookie, which had the same writer, did 16 million in 2,500 theaters, which makes me think Radio has no chance in hell. It's got a catchy title and a slick trailer, I'll give it that.

 

[Gillian]

The sneaks score really high marks. word of mouth? Remember the Titans?

 

[Gillian]

yeah, but with the same theater count, I AM SAM mad over 18 million, easily. Rookie over 17 million. This film could easily go over 15 million.

hey Oren, does your "real" name start with the letter: D ?

 

[JMoney]

Where do you find the number of theaters?

 

[Oren1]

D? no... anyways it's not going to have a 6,000 per theater average. the only reason i Am Sam had a high averae is because it was playing in few theateres. Look at it's average when it was in limitted release, it was huge. Less theaters mean a higher average. Runaway Jury had an average of 4,200, don't see why this will do any better. Box office mojo is one place that has the theater counts. Remember the Titans was a Denzel Washington vehicle and was purely about a football team. Totally different animal.

[This message was edited by Oren1 on October 23, 2003 at 12:44 PM.]

[This message was edited by Oren1 on October 23, 2003 at 12:46 PM.]

 

[Oren1]

Gil, where'd you hear about the nseaks?

 

[Gillian]

Here is the article...

Sony's "Radio," from Revolution Studios, had a second weekend of sneaks, this time in 891 locations. The exits were even higher than a week earlier, with 97% marking the top two boxes and capacity was near 75%. The PG-rated "Radio" opens in more than 3,000 locales next weekend.

 

[Gillian]

But two weeks of sneaks with that much of a theater count can also lower the take. But good word of mouth... hmm?

 

[Oren1]

well, the stock is trading at 36.25, so that would give it roughly 12 million for the weekend if it's an accurrate price. Which they never are, but the general opinion is this one's a dog, it seems. But the Texas Chainsaw Massacre sotock was severly underpriced and anyone holding that stock made huge gains.

 

[Gillian]

The More I think about it, Radio is a wait for DVD movie. I'll have to go with under 14 million now. It's a good number. And all the gurus are picking that it does under 14 million as well. So I am officially going with your pick, Oren.

RADIO - UNDER 14 MILLION.

 

[Oren1]

was runaway jury number 7 on moviedfone's chart last week? that's what radio is now... lookin' good so far. Beyond Borders isn't far behind at #9, could pull 5 million.

 

[Gillian]

For Friday, I think it's pretty normal for opening movies to hit the top five. Movies like House Of The Dead hit the top 5 on Friday, and it made only 5 million and change.

 

[Oren1]

damn it's #2 now

It would be reassuring to see it lower but I think Runaway Jury might have been #2 on Friday as well.

 

[Gillian]

Yep, it was. But still... I don't like the feel good concept that's pushing this film. Damn is right! I don't want it to go over 13 million. Not at all.

 

[Oren1]